Mandalay Bay-Las Vegas Shooting Part 10

Figures Lie and Liars Figure

This man spent the greater portion of his life seeking out a Unified Field Theory…so am I

A Cautionary Tale About Statistics

I wrote this article as a result of a visceral reaction that I had to a manipulative video made by #IamJohnCullen/#John E Hoover. All of the Hoover videos are manipulative propaganda. This reaction came from the YouTube video posted on the topic of  statistics- A22:

Long ago in a distant galaxy I worked all day long with statistics. I was a media buyer. Every move I made hinged on the stats. I had to estimate rating deliveries on new programs, old programs, specials, news reports, comedies, melodramas, soap operas, cartoons. I had to figure out if a new program was going to appeal more to males than females, more to teens than 18-34 year olds, more to higher incomes than lower incomes, more to Toyota buyers than to Honda buyers. I was top in my field. I do not say that from ego, but from fact. I had an extraordinary record for hitting my numbers (predictions..in media, we called them “projections”) as well as selling more actual product than my peers. At one company, I became so in demand with clients that I found myself working 100 hour weeks.

That particular company was the ONLY media company in the industry that subscribed to BOTH Nielsen and Arbitron; the reason being that they did a lot of sub contract work for major agencies, some of whom subscribed to Nielsen and some subscribed to Arbitron.  At the time, both Nielsen and Arbitron measured television audience deliveries.  Therefore, I found it to be highly intriguing and highly disturbing that on any given day, ARB might show a 15 rating while NSI stated a 7 for the same exact program. So, of course, me being me and wanting to solve the mystery, I began to explore why.

I began by phoning up the reps at the two companies and challenging them to explain. Each told me how solid their methodology was, the other guy was wrong….no gold there. So I started doing personal projects in my non-existent “spare time” to get to the bottom of the mystery. I went to the front of the books where the more “raw” data could be found. This is where they published their sample sizes and I quickly saw that this was where the problem began. As an example, in a city the size of Los Angeles with millions of people, returned diaries measured in the neighborhood of 400 to 450 meaning that each returned diary spoke for some 20,000 other people.

Then I observed that both employed “weighting” factors in an effort to compensate for erratic diary returns in the various categories that concerned media buyers the most such as ethnic groups, high income groups, teens, homeowners, low income groups, etc. The light dawned. I was looking at data based on assumption, not measurement. I was looking at dozens of assumptions overlaid on very small sample sizes. In short, I wasn’t looking at data at all. Those agencies were shelling out hundreds of thousands of dollars annually for their precious subscriptions to junk science. That’s the real world.

You can apply this lesson to global warming or virtually anything else that is based on statistics, up to and including whether helicopters, Saudis, AK47s, Steven Paddock, or a team of mercenaries were involved in the Las Vegas massacre. Unless you have enough data and the right data, you are stroking yourself. That’s the real world.

We have recently been informed that the Las Vegas coroner performed autopsies on roughly 50% of the victims. We know, or should know, that many people were injured in various ways, many from tripping or being trampled, or shot but managed to survive.

We hopefully realize that the data on survivors is unavailable due to HIPPA laws combined with the fact that hospitals are private corporations and not subject to FOIA requests. Therefore, we will never have enough data to  prove where the shots originated, how many people were involved in the attack, whether this was a foreign attack or domestic, whether the weapons were bump stock, belt fed, or semi automatic cartridge, whether the FBI is covering up for themselves or for the CIA…or a little of both,

Quite simply, we will not be able to reach valid conclusions while solely employing the means of statistical analysis. That said, there are places where statistical analysis can be of help however we must also embrace the concept of thinking and looking “outside the box”. I will readily concede that “outside the box” is a nebulous and perilous place, yet we must venture there.

I would like to acknowledge and direct readers to several people who are doing an incredible job, both with science and outside the box.However, keep in mind that not every point will be valid whether science based or intuition based (including me). These people are all making noteworthy, serious contributions and display dedication to the victims and the families of this horrendous travesty. D James, John E Hoover/Mr Visual/#IAmJohnCullen, According to Joe, Charlton, Charles Walton, Laura Loomer, HDRCFX, and Jake Morphonios. ..and last but not least, Scott Binsack. Some of the aforementioned are counter co-intel pro.  You know who you are and to you I say thanks for some great material. I enjoyed myself ever so.

In the end, it will boil down to this. It was Saudis (funding), Mossad (planning/training), and CIA (staffing/providing the “expendables”).

One last point….consider what can happen in the unfortunate event that the herd turns on the sheep dog. This hopefully illustrates why it is important to be part of a coordinated, cooperative team when your back is to a cliff. Solo hot dogs risk ending up on the grill…with or without mustard and relish.